Module: Risk Assessment
The purpose of this activity is to characterize the critical loads, identified in the Baseline Development module, and criticality, identified in the Site-Level Planning module, to establish the outage durations of concern for risk assessment.* Some critical loads may be able to tolerate longer outage durations before impacting critical missions. For some, there may be means for temporarily achieving the mission without reliance on the critical load. Other critical loads may be able to tolerate only a brief outage with no ability to duplicate that function elsewhere. These factors influence the contributions of critical loads to risk.
Data Inputs Needed
- Criticality weighting factors for critical functions from Action 4 in the Site Level Planning Module
- Redundant system data from Action 1 in the Baseline Development Module
- List of critical loads and the critical functions they support from Action 2 in the Baseline Development Module
Outputs of This Action
- Documentation of critical mission duplication capability, time to initiate, and duplication testing and procedures
- Input to inform development of solutions in Action 2 of the Solution Development Module
- Input to risk screening tool:
- For those working offline, input into Tab 2 of the TRN Risk Assessment Excel workbook
This action consolidates information that has been collected in previous modules to better understand risk scenarios of concern on a load-by-load basis. Critical loads were identified and analyzed in the Baseline Development module. Here, this information is brought together with the criticality weighting of functions collected in the Site-Level Planning module.
Complete the Risk Assessment Action 1 Worksheet: Critical Load Characterization
Record Criticality Weights for Critical Loads
Within the Risk Assessment Action 1 Worksheet: Critical Load Characterization, users can associate a criticality weighting factor, assigned to the site’s critical functions in the Site-Level Planning module, with each critical load that serves those functions. This is a prerequisite to weighting risk in proportion to the criticality of the loads impacted in each risk scenario. To do this, record each critical load in the “Tolerable Outage and Mission Duplication Capability” table. In the “Critical Load Weighting Factor” column, record the criticality weighting factor of the function served by the critical load, determined in Action 4 of the Site-Level Planning module.
Determine Tolerable Outage Duration and Mission Duplication Capability
A key activity within this action is to review each critical load and determine the tolerable outage duration (TOD) of the load. Determine the TOD of critical loads by evaluating how long a critical function supported by the load can be without energy or water. Record this information in the Risk Assessment Action 1 Worksheet: Critical Load Characterization.
Another important activity in determining the risk of energy and water disruptions is to determine whether the capability exists to duplicate the function supported by the critical load. What alternatives currently exist that will duplicate the function elsewhere? How long does it take that capability to initiate? How confident is the site that such duplication will work as planned? For example, can the staff who would normally provide real-time intelligence analysis in the office facility be relocated to another facility in the event of power loss? How long would that relocation take? Critical function duplication can help reduce the consequence of resource loss by ensuring the critical function continues—even without the critical load. Record the answers to these questions in the Risk Assessment Action 1 Worksheet: Critical Load Characterization.
Characterize Redundant Energy and Water Systems
In addition to critical function duplication capabilities, critical loads may also have one or more redundant energy and water systems that enable operation in the event of primary system outages. Users should consider how long existing redundant supply systems can support critical loads in the event of an outage and record this information in the Risk Assessment Action 1 Worksheet: Critical Load Characterization. How do expected runtimes of those redundant systems compare to expected utility outage durations, and can they be activated quickly enough that the tolerable outage duration of the critical load is not exceeded? For a site to have confidence that a redundant system will work as intended, a high probability of success will be needed in restoring energy or water to the critical load in the time required (i.e., within the tolerable outage duration) and in remaining functional throughout the outage of the primary resource. Refer to the data collected in the Baseline Development module on the critical loads and their redundant systems.
Instructions for Data Entry
For those working offline, the information collected in the Risk Assessment Action 1 Worksheet: Critical Load Characterization can be copied and pasted directly into Tab 2 of the TRN Risk Assessment Excel workbook. Online users can enter information directly into the online form.