2: Model Solution Risk Reduction Potential
Solution Prioritization / Model Solution Risk Reduction Potential
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Inputs Needed

  • Completed TRN risk assessment from the Risk Assessment module
  • List of screened solutions from Action 1 of the Solution Prioritization module

Outputs

  • Risk reduction efficacy of each resilience solution

Overview

In this action, the user reviews each screened solution to understand how it could reduce risk by reducing consequence and/or vulnerability. This information is then used to model potential risk reduction for each solution. The semi-quantitative method in the TRN is used to help generate a prioritized list of resilience-enhancing solutions.

In-Depth

In this action, the user analyzes each resilience solution to understand how that solution would change the characteristics of critical loads and redundant systems. Through this analysis, solution risk values are calculated. These can be compared with the current site risk calculated in the Risk Assessment module to determine the solution’s risk-reduction efficacy.

Evaluating Solution Risk

After selecting “Update Impacts” for each solution in the Solution Prioritization Action 2 worksheet, the TRN web tool provides three sections: “Update Redundant Systems,” “Update Critical Loads,” and “Update Risk Scenarios,” focusing on critical loads and redundant systems that may be impacted by the solution. “Update Redundant Systems” provides the user the opportunity to record redundant system improvements or additional redundant systems provided by a solution, closely paralleling the Baseline Development Action 3 characterization of current site redundant systems. “Update Critical Loads” is largely analogous to the Risk Assessment Action 1 characterization of critical loads. Each worksheet question regarding relevant redundant systems and critical loads is pre-populated with the answers given in those prior two actions. The user can change the answers as relevant to reflect the changes that the resilience solution would generate at their site.

"Update Risk Scenarios” is an optional section. Based on user answers in the prior two sections, the TRN estimates the vulnerability used in the risk calculation. This vulnerability represents the probability that the redundant system(s) could fail in each modeled scenario and is a key component of the risk calculation. If the estimated vulnerability seems unrealistic, use the professional judgement of relevant staff (e.g., energy and water managers) to override the vulnerability probability, estimating the likelihood that a critical function will fail in a given outage scenario based on the experience of these personnel. This override capability, which parallels that provided in Risk Assessment Action 3, is optional. If used, it may be used selectively (e.g., for as little as a single scenario for a single solution).

Reviewing Solution Risk-Reduction Efficacy

After all solutions have been modeled via the updating of redundant system and critical load characteristics, the user can view the solution weighted risk and the risk-reduction efficacy of each solution. Additionally, the user will be able to see how the TRN categorizes the risk-reduction efficacy. These categories will be used for the prioritization of resilience solutions in Solution Prioritization Action 4. The risk reduction results table may be a helpful tool for briefing leadership about the results of the site’s TRN risk assessment and how identified solutions can address risk at the site.